BC Economy Slows as Growth Moderates in Mid-2025

The latest BCREA Nowcast shows that British Columbia’s economy continues to expand, but at a slower pace compared to earlier in the year. The estimate of provincial economic growth (measured as year-over-year growth in real GDP) for June 2025 came in at 1.6 per cent, slightly above the national rate of 0.9 per cent.

However, preliminary estimates for July 2025 indicate that growth in BC has eased further, slowing to 1.2 per cent, while Canada as a whole maintained year-over-year growth of 0.9 per cent.

Looking at the broader picture, BC’s economy has grown at an average pace of 1.5 per cent over the first seven months of 2025, tracking modest but steady expansion despite external headwinds.

Regional Trends: Lower Mainland Outpaces Other Areas

At the regional level, growth remains uneven. The Lower Mainland continues to provide the bulk of economic momentum, supported by its diversified industries and service sectors. In contrast, regions more dependent on trade and commodity markets are lagging.

The Northern and Kootenay regions, in particular, are facing sharper economic challenges. Slowing exports—driven in part by US tariffs—are weighing heavily on these resource-reliant economies. This divergence underscores the growing economic divide between urban centres and regions tied closely to external demand and global trade.

Outlook

With growth moderating, BC’s economic trajectory for the rest of 2025 will likely depend on global trade conditions, export demand, and domestic consumer activity. Policymakers and businesses alike will need to prepare for an environment where expansion continues, but at a more restrained pace than in previous years.