Canadian Housing Starts and What They Mean for the Victoria Real Estate Market

The latest data on Canadian housing starts provides valuable insights into trends that shape the real estate market, especially here in Victoria, British Columbia. For March 2025, housing starts across Canada saw a 3% decline compared to the previous month, with a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 214,155 units. Year-over-year, this represents a 12% drop in total starts.

While single-detached housing starts held steady nationwide at 49,667 units, multi-family and other starts declined by 4%, reaching 164,484 units (SAAR). This slowdown highlights ongoing challenges in the Canadian housing sector, particularly in urban areas with increasing demand for multi-family developments.

Positive Momentum in British Columbia

In contrast to the national trend, British Columbia saw a 5% increase in housing starts from February, reaching 31,145 units (SAAR). In municipalities with populations of 10,000 or more, single-detached starts grew by 3%, while multi-family starts climbed by 6%. Despite these month-over-month gains, housing starts in the province were still 12% lower than the levels recorded in March 2024.

Among notable regional trends, Abbotsford experienced a dramatic 122% increase in year-to-date housing starts, showcasing a booming local development sector. However, other key areas have faced declines:

• Nanaimo: Down 48%

• Vancouver: Down 37%

• Kelowna: Down 36%

• Victoria: Down 33%

Implications for the Victoria Real Estate Market

The 33% year-to-date decline in Victoria's housing starts underscores the challenges of balancing supply with the city's growing demand for housing. However, the modest growth in British Columbia’s overall housing starts offers some optimism for new opportunities across the province.

1. Limited Housing Supply: The slowdown in housing starts in Victoria could further tighten inventory levels, potentially driving up property values and competition among buyers. This trend makes it crucial for buyers to act strategically, leveraging professional advice to secure desirable properties.

2. Shifting Preferences for Multi-Family Housing: With multi-family starts showing growth in BC, developments such as condos and townhouses may gain traction in Victoria. This could provide more affordable housing options for first-time buyers and investors.

3. Opportunities in Emerging Markets: Abbotsford's exceptional growth in year-to-date starts reflects a dynamic market with significant development activity. Buyers and investors may consider exploring opportunities in neighboring regions like Abbotsford to diversify their portfolios or discover better value.

4. Developer Outlook: Developers must navigate current economic conditions, which include a balancing act between demand for new housing and the rising costs of construction and materials. Strategic planning and engagement with local policymakers are essential for fostering sustainable growth in Victoria's housing market.

Final Thoughts

Understanding housing start trends is vital for buyers, sellers, developers, and investors in Victoria's real estate market. While the city faces challenges with declining starts, opportunities in multi-family housing and nearby markets provide pathways for growth and stability. By staying informed and working with knowledgeable professionals, you can adapt to these shifting dynamics and make well-informed decisions for your real estate goals.