Canadian Retail Sales (June 2025)

Canadian retail sales saw a strong rebound in June 2025, climbing 1.5% month-over-month to $70.2 billion. Compared to the same time last year, sales were up an impressive 6.6%, marking the highest retail activity level of the year so far.

Excluding gasoline and automobile sales, core retail sales rose 1.9% month-over-month, highlighting broad consumer spending strength across categories. In volume terms, adjusted for inflation, retail sales also increased by 1.5% in June.

On a quarterly basis, retail sales edged up 0.4% in the second quarter, showing resilience despite ongoing economic headwinds.

Regional Highlights: BC and Vancouver Lead Growth

British Columbia recorded 1.5% retail sales growth in May compared to the previous month, with year-over-year sales surging 10.2%.

In the Vancouver CMA, retail sales were even stronger, rising 2.0% month-over-month and 12.4% above June 2024 levels, underscoring robust consumer demand in the region.

Outlook and Market Considerations

June’s report signals a notable rebound after slower activity in May. However, challenges remain:

• Over 25% of businesses reported being negatively impacted by tariffs, citing higher final prices and weakened demand.

• While stronger sales data supports the case for a Bank of Canada rate hold, uncertainty remains ahead of the September policy decision, especially with core inflation hovering near the upper limit and economic growth showing signs of weakness.

Key Takeaways

• National Sales: +1.5% month-over-month, +6.6% year-over-year.

• Core Sales: +1.9% month-over-month.

• BC Sales: +1.5% month-over-month, +10.2% year-over-year.

• Vancouver CMA: +2.0% month-over-month, +12.4% year-over-year.

• Outlook: Strong consumer demand but tariff impacts and inflation pressures add uncertainty.

Overall, June retail sales highlight resilient consumer spending in Canada, with British Columbia and Vancouver leading growth. The data supports a cautious outlook for monetary policy as the Bank of Canada weighs inflation, tariffs, and economic performance heading into fall 2025.