Bank of Canada Interest Rate Announcement

The Bank of Canada held its overnight policy rate at 2.25 per cent this morning. In the statement accompanying the decision, the Bank noted that despite significant global uncertainty and volatility, Canada's economy is showing signs of improvement, with growth rebounding in the second quarter and broadening across sectors. The Bank projects growth of just 0.7 per cent this year but expects the economy to expand by 1.8 per cent in both 2027 and 2028. On inflation, the Bank expects CPI to remain elevated in June before gradually easing in the coming months and returning to its 2 per cent target in 2027.

Although the status of the conflict with Iran remains fluid, fears of an oil-price-driven inflation spiral have not materialized. While headline inflation has moved higher, there is little evidence that higher energy costs have been passed through to core inflation in Canada, which remains subdued. As such, there is no need for the Bank to raise rates this year. However, if the Canadian economy continues to regain momentum and core inflation settles near the Bank's 2 per cent target, policymakers may not need to keep the overnight rate at the low end of the neutral range for much longer. In that case, the Bank could begin moving its policy rate back toward 2.75 per cent next year.

That outlook, combined with rising inflation in the United States, which has made a summer rate hike by the Federal Reserve a real possibility, is putting upward pressure on five-year bond yields, which drive fixed mortgage rates in Canada. Consequently, fixed mortgage rates may edge higher heading into the fall.