BC Real GDP Growth Slows to 1.2% in February 2025, Slight Uptick Expected in March

The BCREA Nowcast for British Columbia’s economy shows a continued trend of modest growth in early 2025, reflecting a broader pattern of post-pandemic stabilization and the impacts of international trade developments. According to the most recent data, the province’s real GDP is estimated to have grown by 1.2% year-over-year in February 2025, with a preliminary projection of 1.4% for March. This follows a strong start to the year that was likely front-loaded by advanced purchasing activity in anticipation of US tariffs.

A Closer Look at the Numbers

The Nowcast model by the British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) offers timely estimates of provincial economic performance, and the latest results suggest a cooling trajectory following a relatively strong January. For comparison, Canada’s national real GDP grew at a 1.6% year-over-year rate in January 2025, positioning BC slightly below the national pace.

This slight dip in February’s economic momentum is consistent with expected patterns following policy-driven consumer and business behavior. The temporary surge in January—fueled by tariff concerns—was unlikely to persist, and the data confirms a return to more stable, if slower, levels of activity.

Regional Trends Show Mixed Recovery

Across BC’s regions, a similar trend was observed: stronger-than-normal growth in January gave way to a deceleration in February. Notably, the Northern region of the province lagged behind the rest due to ongoing labour market weakness, which continues to constrain economic performance in that area.

These localized slowdowns are important reminders that headline provincial figures can obscure regional disparities. While the provincial average remains positive, some areas are experiencing more acute challenges, particularly where employment growth has stalled.

Historical Context and Chart Insights

Looking at the broader Nowcast chart, several key historical trends help frame the current data:

• 2009: BC’s GDP contracted by approximately 6% during the global financial crisis.

• 2020: The COVID-19 pandemic caused an even steeper decline, with GDP falling by nearly 11%.

• 2021: A swift rebound followed, with growth surging over 12%.

• 2022–2025: Recent years show a return to more tempered growth in the range of 1%–2%, indicating a period of economic normalization.

What’s notable is the close alignment between the BCREA Nowcast estimates (the monthly tracking line) and the actual annual GDP growth (grey bars), demonstrating the tool’s strong historical reliability and value for real-time economic assessment.

Looking Ahead

With March’s preliminary estimate showing a slight uptick to 1.4%, the outlook remains cautiously optimistic. However, key risks persist, including the potential impact of ongoing global trade tensions, inflationary pressures, and labour market constraints in specific regions.

The BCREA Nowcast remains a vital instrument for policymakers, economists, and industry professionals looking to monitor BC’s economic health. As 2025 progresses, attention will likely focus on the sustainability of modest growth and the province’s resilience amid shifting global economic conditions.