Canadian Economic Growth (February 2026)

Canadian real GDP grew by 0.2 per cent in February after increasing by 0.1 per cent in January. Goods-producing sectors rose by 0.4 per cent, while service-producing industries rose by 0.1 per cent from the previous month. Industry contributors to growth were led by manufacturing (1.8 per cent), wholesale trade (0.9 per cent), and transportation and warehousing (1.2 per cent). Output for the offices of real-estate agents and brokers fell by 1.7 per cent month-over-month. Preliminary estimates suggest that real GDP by industry was essentially unchanged in March.

February’s GDP numbers are a welcomed sight amidst a volatile global economy and floundering Canadian labour market. After two months of growth and a flat estimate for March, the Canadian economy is poised to outperform the Bank of Canada’s most recent projection for 1.5 per cent annualized growth in the first quarter. In its updated Monetary Policy Report, the Bank is modelling a peak impact of an additional full point on headline inflation resulting from the Middle Eastern oil shock, which subsides next year. Looking ahead, the Bank’s monetary policy direction for the rest of the year largely hinges on how inflation evolves according to its forecast, which remains to be seen as the Iran conflict remains volatile.