Canadian Inflation (September 2025)

Canadian prices, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), rose 2.4 per cent on a year-over-year basis in September, up from a 1.9 per cent increase in August. On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, the CPI was up 0.4 per cent in September. The CPI ex-gasoline increased by 2.6 per cent in September after rising 2.4 per cent in August. Additionally, shelter price growth remained at 2.6 per cent in September, while food price growth rose by 3.8 per cent year-over-year, 0.4 points higher than the previous month. In BC, consumer prices rose 1.9 per cent year-over-year in September, up from 1.8 per cent in August. The Bank of Canada's preferred measures of median and trimmed inflation, which strip out volatile components, were 3.2 per cent and 3.1 per cent year-over-year, respectively. 
 
September’s CPI report certainly complicates the Bank of Canada’s upcoming decision, with headline and core inflation ticking upward. While base-year effects explain some of the upward price pressures, acceleration in certain aggregates such as food prices will certainly concern the Bank.  Nonetheless, the Bank has emphasized that underlying inflation—while higher than preferred—remains stable at around 2.5 per cent, which, coupled with weak economic conditions, suggests a rate cut is on the horizon before year-close.