Canadian Retail Sales (March 2025) – May 23, 2025

Canadian retail sales saw a healthy uptick in March, offering a positive sign of consumer resilience amid broader economic uncertainties. According to Statistics Canada, retail sales rose by 0.8% month-over-month to reach $69.8 billion. On a year-over-year basis, that’s a 5.6% increase, driven in part by continued consumer demand and seasonal factors.

Stripping out the more volatile components—gasoline stations and motor vehicles—core retail sales showed a 0.2% increase from February. Meanwhile, in volume terms, which adjust for inflation, retail activity grew by 0.9%, suggesting real gains in consumer spending power.

Looking at the bigger picture, retail activity was up 1.2% in the first quarter of 2025, with a more modest 0.2% gain in volume terms. This marks the fourth straight quarterly increase in retail performance—evidence of steady, albeit moderate, economic momentum.

British Columbia Retail Snapshot

In British Columbia, retail sales rose 0.3% month-over-month in March and were 4.7% higher than in March 2024. The Vancouver CMA (Census Metropolitan Area) outpaced the provincial average, posting a 0.7% monthly gain and a 6.4% year-over-year increase—a clear sign of consumer confidence in one of the country’s most dynamic urban markets.

Policy Implications and What to Watch

While March's numbers are encouraging, they are not expected to influence the Bank of Canada’s policy rate decision in the near term. Global economic headwinds, ongoing geopolitical tensions, and persistent inflation concerns continue to weigh on the central bank’s outlook.

Economists and policymakers alike are now turning their attention to next week’s GDP report, which could be a critical data point in determining the direction of monetary policy at the Bank of Canada's June meeting.

As retail continues to show steady growth, the question remains: will this consumer strength be enough to offset the larger uncertainties looming over the Canadian and global economies?

Stay tuned as we break down the GDP figures and what they mean for businesses, investors, and everyday Canadians.