Canadian Retail Sales (June 2026)

Canadian retail sales increased by 0.6 per cent to $74.3 billion in June compared to the previous month. Retail sales were 5.3 per cent higher compared to the same time last year. Moreover, core retail sales, which exclude gasoline and automobile items, increased by 1.2 per cent in June. In volume terms, adjusted for rising prices, retail sales rose by 1.5 per cent. Taken together with the previous two months of data, retail sales were up by 2.2 per cent in the second quarter.

Retail sales in British Columbia were up 0.1 per cent in June month-over-month and rose by 1.7 per cent compared to the same time last year. In the CMA of Vancouver, retail sales were down 0.1 per cent from the prior month and were 0.2 per cent below the level of June 2025.

Canadian retail sales logged a second straight quarter of strong growth, highlighting the resilience of consumer spending amidst economic volatility. Paired with encouraging signs from recent labour market and GDP data, the Canadian economy appears to be recovering well following two consecutive contractionary quarters. Moreover, recent discussions of a potential trade agreement with the US could provide a tailwind for the economy if renegotiations are successful. Looking forward, these data points slightly bias the Bank of Canada towards eventually raising its overnight rate to 2.75 per cent in 2027, though we expect monetary policy to remain unchanged through the rest of 2026.