Second-Half Recovery in 2025 Sets Up a Brighter 2026

The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) released its Third Quarter Housing Forecast Update for 2025, highlighting ongoing market adjustments across the province.

According to the forecast, MLS® residential sales in BC are expected to fall 2.2% this year to 72,840 units. However, the outlook for next year is more optimistic, with sales projected to rise 10.7% to 80,600 units in 2026.

BCREA Chief Economist Brendon Ogmundson noted that “trade-related uncertainty upended hopes for a more normal market through the first half of 2025. While provincial home sales remain weak overall, particularly in the Lower Mainland, many markets are now returning to long-run average sales activity and should head into 2026 with some momentum.”

Inventory Trends and Pricing Outlook

One of the most notable shifts has been the stabilization of provincial resale inventory, which now sits just above 40,000 active listings—a level not seen in over a decade. This increase in supply has helped cool demand pressure in many areas.

• Stronger demand regions: Expected to see modest price growth as buyers regain confidence.

• Weaker demand regions (e.g., Lower Mainland): Facing downward pressure on prices due to softer sales.

On balance, the average home price across BC is forecast to remain flat in 2025, with a slight increase anticipated in 2026 as markets stabilize.

Key Takeaways

• 2025 Forecast: 72,840 MLS® sales (-2.2%).

• 2026 Forecast: 80,600 MLS® sales (+10.7%).

• Inventory: Over 40,000 listings, the highest in 10+ years.

• Prices: Flat in 2025, modest growth expected in 2026.

The coming year is expected to be one of transition and recovery for BC’s housing market. While the Lower Mainland may continue to see challenges, other regions could benefit from improved balance and gradual price gains heading into 2026.