Vancouver Island-Coast Housing Market Update: Spotlight on Victoria

A Promising Start to 2025

The Vancouver Island-Coast region, including Victoria, kicked off 2025 with a housing market showing signs of resilience. Sales began slightly higher than the same time last year, though they remain below the ten-year average. February painted a dimmer picture, with uncertainty prompting some prospective buyers to pause. Despite this, economic and housing activity is expected to struggle in 2025 due to ongoing US tariffs.

Victoria's Market Outlook

In Victoria, the market is forecasted to see a modest 1.7% rise in MLS® home sales by 2026, driven by accumulating inventory. Unit sales are projected to increase from 6,582 in 2024 to 7,000 by 2026, with a slight 1.8% growth in 2025. Single-detached homes show a 0.2% uptick to 3,350 units in 2025, with a stronger 6.3% rise to 3,550 by 2026. Apartments and townhouses also reflect growth, with apartments rising 9.3% to 2,350 units and townhouses increasing 9.1% to 900 units by 2026.

Price-wise, Victoria's average MLS® price is expected to climb from $973,702 in 2024 to $1,011,700 by 2026, a 2.2% increase. Single-detached homes will see a 1.8% rise to $1,317,900, while apartments jump 5% to $641,800. Townhouses remain stable with a 3.7% increase to $862,200.

Regional Comparisons

Across Vancouver Island, sales are forecasted to grow 5.7% to 7,400 units by 2026, with single-detached homes up 4.7% to 4,500 units. The average price here will rise 3.6% to $763,900. Powell River, benefiting from a smoother economic environment, anticipates a 7.7% sales increase to 350 units, with single-detached homes up 8% to 270 units. Prices in Powell River will inch up 0.3% to $615,000.

Economic Context

The BC Real Estate Association's Nowcast highlights Vancouver Island's GDP growth outpacing BC's average in recent years, though a sharp decline is noted in 2025. With a more stable economic landscape expected in 2026, Victoria and surrounding areas are poised for recovery, supported by a 4.5% rise in sales and steady price growth.

Conclusion

Victoria’s housing market shows cautious optimism for 2025 and 2026, with modest sales and price increases reflecting a market adapting to economic challenges. As demand recovers, keeping an eye on inventory and regional trends will be key for buyers and sellers alike.