Total MLS® residential sales dollar volume was $4.9 billion, down 11 per cent from the same time the previous year. BC MLS® unit sales were 25.8 per cent lower than the ten-year average for the month of September.
“Home sales dipped in September after an encouraging summer as spiking oil prices prompted speculation of impending Bank of Canada rate hikes,” said BCREA Chief Economist Brendon Ogmundson. “However, we are also seeing inventory levels decline on a monthly basis, which should help markets remain in balance.”
Year-to-date, BC residential sales dollar volume is down 7 per cent to $48.11 billion, compared with the same period in 2025. Residential unit sales are down 5.9 per cent year-over-year at 51,310 units, while the average MLS® residential price is down 1.1 per cent to $937,644.
What the September 2026 data means for Victoria’s real estate market
Victoria’s housing market appears to be experiencing softer demand and downward pressure on prices, with sales activity weakening more sharply than prices. For buyers, this could mean more negotiating power and opportunities to find a suitable property. For sellers, it suggests the importance of realistic pricing and preparation.
What the numbers tell us
1. Victoria’s sales activity is weakening significantly.
Victoria recorded 438 residential sales in September, a 17.2% decline compared with September 2025. This is a substantially larger drop than the provincewide decline of 8.9%.
This suggests that buyers in Victoria may be more cautious, delaying purchases while assessing affordability, mortgage rates and the economic outlook. However, one month's figures cannot establish whether this is a lasting trend.
2. Prices are declining faster than the provincial average.
Victoria’s average residential price fell 4.9% year over year, compared with a 2.4% decline across British Columbia.
The difference suggests that Victoria’s market is under greater price pressure than the provincial market overall. Still, the average price can change because of the mix of homes sold. For example, if fewer expensive detached houses sell and a greater proportion of lower-priced condos sell, the average can fall even if individual properties have not declined by the same percentage.
3. Buyers may have more room to negotiate.
With sales falling faster than prices, some sellers may need to adjust their expectations to attract buyers. Depending on the property and competing listings, buyers may have greater opportunities to negotiate on price, subjects, closing dates or repairs.
That does not mean every property is becoming a bargain. Desirable homes in sought-after neighbourhoods can still attract competition, particularly if their asking prices are realistic.
4. Sellers may need to be more strategic.
Sellers should be prepared for buyers to compare more carefully and scrutinize asking prices. Overpricing may result in a longer time on the market or eventual price reductions.
The most useful comparison is not simply the regional average, but recent sales of similar properties in the same neighbourhood, adjusted for condition, size and property type.
5. The wider economic outlook could affect demand.
BCREA’s report attributes the September slowdown partly to speculation about possible Bank of Canada rate hikes following rising oil prices. If borrowing costs increase, affordability could deteriorate further. If rates remain stable or decline, that could help restore buyer confidence.
The report also notes that inventory levels are declining month over month. That could help keep the market more balanced by limiting the supply of homes available to buyers, even while sales remain weak.
Overall outlook: Victoria's September figures point to a cooling market with weaker demand and greater potential for buyer negotiation. However, the data alone does not establish that prices will continue falling or indicate how far they might decline. Interest rates, inventory, employment and the mix of properties sold will influence what happens next.
